With former U.S. President Donald Trump pledging to deport millions of undocumented migrants, Canadian authorities, including the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and government agencies, are preparing for a possible surge in asylum seekers crossing into Canada. U.S. immigration attorney Len Saunders, who has extensive experience in immigration law from his practice in Blaine, Washington, has highlighted the potential impacts of Trump’s plans on Canada’s border. Saunders believes that Canada may soon experience a rise in irregular crossings, as migrants seek a more certain path to residency.
The Safe Third Country Agreement between the U.S. and Canada restricts asylum seekers from filing claims at official border points if they have already been in the U.S. However, Saunders suggests that those deterred by the agreement may increasingly attempt entry through less monitored areas along the border.
Safe Third Country Agreement Limits Asylum Pathways
The Safe Third Country Agreement, a treaty enacted in 2004, requires asylum seekers to request protection in the first “safe” country they enter, which often means the U.S. for those initially crossing into North America. As a result, those who have already applied for asylum in the U.S. cannot simply go to an official Canadian border point and apply for refugee status. If they attempt to do so, they will be turned back to the U.S., with few legal alternatives available.
According to Saunders, the restrictive nature of this agreement may prompt many migrants to seek entry to Canada through more remote, unmonitored border zones. “Without access to legal avenues, individuals in the U.S. may look northward to Canada, where they may perceive a better chance at residency,” he explained.
Limited Border Patrols Pose Challenges
Canada’s long, porous border with the U.S. presents challenges for border enforcement, especially in more remote regions. Saunders highlights areas between White Rock and Abbotsford in British Columbia as likely spots for increased crossings, where enforcement on both sides of the border is reportedly limited.
“There’s hardly any enforcement on the Canadian border,” Saunders stated. He explained that American authorities are often the ones alerting Canadian officials to irregular crossings. “I think what you’re going to see is people coming to areas like Peace Arch Park. They’ll fly into Seattle or Bellingham, take an Uber or taxi, and simply walk across the border,” he said, emphasizing the ease with which migrants could exploit these under-patrolled areas.
Overwhelming Backlog in U.S. Immigration Courts
The U.S. immigration court system is currently overwhelmed with cases, creating a significant bottleneck for migrants seeking a legal path to residency or asylum. Saunders reports that the U.S. backlog is now so extensive that it could take migrants up to 50 years to receive a court date before an immigration judge. This delay means many migrants who have already entered the U.S. are likely to be left in a state of limbo, without legal status or certainty about their future.
Saunders noted that facing such an indefinite wait time might lead many migrants to abandon their efforts to obtain status in the U.S. “They’re going to give up. And what they’re going to do is they’re going to look north,” he stated.
For many, Canada appears a more promising alternative. Saunders foresees that individuals who find themselves stuck in the U.S. immigration backlog, facing lengthy delays and uncertain outcomes, will increasingly turn their sights toward Canada as a viable option.
Migrants May Find ‘Greener Pastures’ in Canada
Saunders believes that Canada’s comparatively welcoming immigration policies and perceived openness to newcomers make it an attractive destination for migrants disillusioned with the U.S. system. With more than two decades of experience in immigration law, he suggests that many migrants view Canada as a place where they might have a chance at securing legal residency and building stable lives.
“They’re going to see that there’s greener pastures up in Canada,” Saunders observed, noting the contrast between the countries. Canada has long maintained a reputation for its inclusive approach to immigration, as well as relatively shorter processing times for asylum claims and pathways to permanent residency. Saunders predicts that this difference, along with Trump’s deportation rhetoric, will make Canada an increasingly popular choice among migrants.
Trump’s Deportation Pledge Adds Pressure on Canadian Border
Trump’s commitment to expelling millions of undocumented migrants has intensified fears within migrant communities in the U.S., as well as concerns among Canadian officials. Trump’s immigration stance was a cornerstone of his platform, emphasizing the deportation of those living in the U.S. without legal status. According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, approximately 11 million undocumented migrants currently reside in the U.S.
Trump’s aggressive deportation promises, along with the Safe Third Country Agreement, may serve as significant drivers for migrants seeking alternative paths to safety and stability outside the U.S. With Canada as a nearby option, many migrants could take the chance of crossing into Canada despite the risks involved.
Canadian Authorities Prepare for Potential Migration Surge
Given the potential for a rise in asylum seekers, Canadian officials are already preparing for an increased influx. Past surges have shown that irregular crossings into Canada often lead to pressures on Canada’s asylum processing system, as well as on housing and support services.
According to Saunders, this potential influx will test Canada’s border infrastructure and the capacity of agencies like the RCMP to manage increased crossings. The challenges include both managing the immediate security and logistical aspects of migration and ensuring that asylum claims are processed efficiently and fairly.
Migrant Crisis Reflects Broader Border Policy Issues
The predicted rise in migrants turning to Canada points to broader concerns over border and immigration policies on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border. The backlog in U.S. immigration courts, the restrictive nature of the Safe Third Country Agreement, and limited enforcement along the border all contribute to an increasingly complex situation for migrants, Canadian authorities, and U.S. immigration officials.
As Trump’s deportation policies intensify, Canada may face an urgent need to re-evaluate its own border security measures, asylum policies, and support systems for asylum seekers. The anticipated influx could fuel discussions about amending the Safe Third Country Agreement to address the growing challenges in cross-border migration.
Conclusion: Canada’s Role as a Refuge and the Road Ahead
With Trump’s immigration policies likely to motivate more migrants to look north, Canada finds itself at a crossroads in terms of border policy and asylum seeker support. The expected rise in irregular crossings underscores Canada’s role as a potential refuge for those who feel their prospects in the U.S. are dwindling.
Len Saunders’s warning reflects a growing sense that Canada’s border infrastructure, policies, and public sentiment will all face tests in the coming months. As migrants pursue stability and legal residency, Canada’s response will play a crucial role in shaping the future of cross-border migration in North America.
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