Washington (CNN) – The Trump administration is tightening its grip on immigration, both legal and illegal. This could lead to labor shortages, slower economic growth, and higher inflation.
Shortly after taking office in late January, President Donald Trump announced many immigration policies. Many of these were aimed at stopping illegal entries, which was a main part of his presidential campaign. But he’s also made it harder for people to immigrate legally. For example, he stopped the asylum – seeking process at the US – Mexico border and canceled flights for refugees who had already been approved.
Jorge Loweree, the managing director of programs at the American Immigration Council, told CNN, “The truth is, our country depends on immigrant labor. Trump’s policies could really hurt many industries.”
Trump once said he’d welcome legal immigrants. On his second day in office, he said, “We need good – quality people coming in.” Last week, he showed a “gold card” visa plan for rich foreigners to live and work in the US.
However, many experts told CNN that legal immigration is likely to go down during Trump’s second term. His administration’s policies and messages make it seem like immigrants are not welcome. This could mean there will be fewer workers in different industries and prices will go up. There are already signs that legal immigration is slowing.
Melissa Lopez, an attorney and executive director of Estrella Del Paso immigration legal services firm, said, “It’s been really quiet. I’ve worked in El Paso for 17 and a half years, and it feels like there’s very little going on.”
Americans are having fewer children, and the population is getting older. This means the healthcare industry really needs workers to take care of the elderly. Also, industries like construction and agriculture, which need younger workers, are short – staffed.
Economists say immigration is what America’s economy needs. But the White House thinks immigration is the problem.
Fewer Legal Immigrants in the Future?
Legal immigration to the US went down in 2020 because of pandemic – related rules. But it went up a lot in the following years.
Last year, around 2.8 million people immigrated to the US legally, according to the Census Bureau. This includes refugees and people with worker visas. They made up 84% of the US population growth in 2024.
A report from the right – leaning Cato Institute last month said that because there are so many immigrants now, Trump has more room to put in restrictions. He wants to make his nativist supporters and the nationalist political class happy by cutting legal immigration.
David Bier, the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, said, “I think we’ll see more restrictions by the summer.” The Trump administration is thinking about using a public health order. This would say that migrants at the southern border asking for asylum are a risk for spreading diseases.
Officials used this power during the pandemic to close the border.
Allianz Trade predicts that legal immigration will be almost cut in half by 2026. With a lot of deportations, this slowdown in immigration could make the population growth drop by 0.2% that year.
Jennifer Babaie, the director of advocacy and legal services at Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, said she thinks it will be much harder for people to apply for anything in the next few years. This will mean fewer people will be able to immigrate to the US legally.
Babaie said, “We expect delays. There are fewer people working in the courts, and the immigration and customs staff and funding are at risk. We now spend hours going into detention to talk to people because we’re not getting any information or help from the administration. This takes away time we could use to work on important cases.”
The Economic Impact of Trump’s Crackdown
In 2023, there were 47.8 million immigrants in the US. They had a total spending power of 1.7 trillion and paid about 652 billion in taxes, according to the American Immigration Council. Trump’s immigration plans could put this economic power at risk.
Allianz Trade predicts that Trump’s crackdown on illegal and legal immigration could make the GDP annual growth rate drop below 2% by 2026. The Brookings Institution thinks that if Trump keeps restricting legal immigration and manages to deport 3.4 million people, the growth could be 0.4 percentage – points lower this year. During his campaign, Trump said he wants to deport “maybe 15 million and up to 20 million” people. But this would be very hard and expensive.
The American Immigration Council estimates that immigrants make up more than 20% of the workers in agriculture, construction, transportation, warehousing, general services, and waste services. So, as Trump does mass deportations and limits legal immigration, employers in these industries will be in trouble.
Giovanni Peri, an economics professor at the University of California, Davis, who studies immigration and labor, said, “These industries have a hard time finding workers. So, being too strict and tough on immigration won’t help Trump get the economic growth and success he wants.”
Peri also said that because of the crackdown on immigration, there will be labor shortages. This could make the prices of food, housing, and tourism go up. He added that immigration is important because of the country’s changing population.
Peri said, “As more Americans retire, more immigration would be really good for the labor market and the economy’s growth.”
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