More than 200,000 international students in Canada are set to see their work permits expire by the end of 2025, a looming deadline that may leave many of them without a clear pathway to permanent residency (PR). New immigration policies have made it increasingly difficult for postgraduation work permit (PGWP) holders to transition to PR status, raising concerns about the future of those who have come to Canada with the hope of building long-term lives and careers.
According to data obtained by The Globe and Mail from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), there are currently 203,260 international students whose postgraduation work permits will expire within the next 15 months. Of these, nearly 70,000 will see their permits expire between September 1 and December 31, 2024. For many of these individuals, time is running out to secure PR status.
A Path Once Clear, Now Complicated
PGWPs are designed to allow international students who have completed a diploma or degree from a Canadian college or university to gain valuable work experience in the country. The permits, which are valid for nine months to three years, have historically been a reliable stepping stone for those seeking PR through Canada’s Express Entry system.
Express Entry, launched in 2015, was an immigration system that prioritized high-skilled workers and foreign graduates with Canadian work experience. Applicants were scored under the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), and every two weeks, the highest-scoring candidates were invited to apply for PR. In 2016, the Liberal government further streamlined the process by awarding additional points to international students who had studied at Canadian postsecondary institutions, making the PR process more accessible for them.
However, as the number of international students and PGWP holders grew, policy changes introduced during and after the COVID-19 pandemic have made the pathway to PR far more uncertain. According to federal data, there were 471,810 PGWP holders by the end of August 2023—more than triple the number in 2018. This significant increase in the number of PR hopefuls has collided with a series of policy shifts that have left many struggling to secure permanent status.
Pandemic Policies and Post-Pandemic Challenges
During the pandemic, the Canadian government introduced temporary measures to support international students and work permit holders, including an 18-month extension for PGWPs. This extension aimed to address the labor shortage while giving PGWP holders more time to navigate the PR application backlog. However, this policy has since been halted, leaving those with expiring permits in a precarious situation.
Compounding this challenge is a shift in the Express Entry selection criteria. The government has started prioritizing French speakers and individuals with work experience in sectors like health care, skilled trades, agriculture, transportation, and STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math) fields. This shift has made it more difficult for PGWP holders who rely on Canadian-specific education and work experience to qualify for PR.
The Canadian Experience Class (CEC) immigration stream, which is the most common route to PR for PGWP holders, was also paused for nearly three years, from August 2021 to May 2024. When draws for CEC applicants resumed, the CRS cut-off score required to obtain PR had increased dramatically, placing many international students at a disadvantage.
Protests and Calls for Change
The growing frustration among international students has led to public protests, with hundreds of PGWP holders in Brampton, Ontario, setting up a protest site to demand more leniency from the federal government. They are calling for an extension of their work permits and a “fair pathway” to PR. Specifically, they are requesting a guarantee that regular draws will be conducted from all streams of the Express Entry system, ensuring that a broader range of candidates have a chance at securing PR.
Despite the outcry, IRCC has not yet responded to queries about the percentage of PGWP holders whose permits expire in 2024 and 2025 who will be granted PR. The uncertainty has left many international students anxious about their future, as the possibility of being forced to leave Canada looms large.
Declining PR Success Rates
Historically, PGWP holders had a relatively high success rate in transitioning to PR. According to Statistics Canada, between 2011 and 2015, 73 percent of PGWP holders obtained PR within five years of receiving their work permit. However, that number dropped to 40 percent between 2016 and 2020, reflecting the increasing challenges posed by changes in immigration policy.
The sharp decline has raised concerns about the sustainability of Canada’s immigration system, particularly in light of the growing number of temporary residents in the country. In the first quarter of 2024, Statistics Canada reported that there were 2.8 million temporary residents, including international students, temporary foreign workers, and asylum seekers. This group now represents 6.8 percent of the country’s population, up from 3.5 percent two years ago.
Balancing Temporary and Permanent Residents
The Canadian government is currently grappling with the challenge of managing its temporary resident population while also meeting its PR targets. Canada has set ambitious immigration goals, aiming to admit 485,000 permanent residents in 2024, 500,000 in 2025, and another 500,000 in 2026. This year alone, Ottawa plans to issue PR to 110,770 applicants through Express Entry, the primary PR pathway for PGWP holders. That number will increase to 117,500 in 2024.
However, experts warn that these targets may not be enough to accommodate the influx of temporary residents, particularly international students, many of whom came to Canada with the expectation of obtaining PR.
Dr. John Carlaw, an assistant professor at Toronto Metropolitan University who specializes in immigration and refugee policy, has criticized the disconnect between the number of people entering Canada as temporary residents and the limited number of PR approvals. “We have hundreds of thousands of people coming to Canada, many of them international students, with the expectation that they would obtain permanent residency,” Dr. Carlaw noted. “But the figures the government sets out for PR in their immigration levels plan do not recognize the extent of migration into Canada. We are not providing a clear pathway to permanent residence for many.”
Government Response and Policy Outlook
In response to these concerns, Aissa Diop, director of communications for Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, reiterated the government’s commitment to stabilizing the number of permanent residents in Canada while reducing the temporary resident population. “Part of the reduction in temporary residents includes transitioning some of them to permanent residency. But if they don’t qualify under any permanent resident program, then they have to go home,” Diop told The Globe and Mail. “We cannot keep opening the taps saying everyone is welcome here.”
The federal government’s stance has left many PGWP holders uncertain about their future, as the pressure to qualify for PR intensifies. For now, those with expiring work permits face the possibility of leaving Canada unless the government introduces new policies or pathways to help them secure permanent status.
A System in Need of Reform
As the debate over immigration policy continues, it is clear that Canada’s approach to international students and temporary residents requires reevaluation. The surge in PGWP holders and the increasingly difficult path to PR have exposed significant gaps in the system, leaving thousands in limbo.
For international students in Canada, the promise of a bright future now feels uncertain. Without meaningful policy changes, many may be forced to leave the country they had hoped to call home, taking their skills and contributions elsewhere.
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