As the dust settles from the European Parliament elections, the implications of the results are becoming clear. While there has been a significant shift to the right, it is not sufficient to place the far-right or hard-right in control of EU institutions. The real impact is at the national level, where centrist French and German governments are increasingly threatened by populist, anti-immigrant parties on the right.
Even if current administrations remain in power, countries like the Netherlands under Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the UK under the Conservatives demonstrate that pressure from populist opposition can push center-right governments towards anti-immigration policies. This rise of the right complicates Europe’s approach to its real migration crisis: the need for foreign workers.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has navigated this by increasing non-EU work permits while displaying hostility towards asylum-seekers. However, the UK’s Conservative Party, facing potential electoral defeat in the upcoming general election, has struggled with this strategy. The EU’s refugee system, criticized as cruel, illegal, and ineffective, has failed to manage the crisis effectively. Member states often resort to harsh measures, such as pushing migrants back at borders or paying North African regimes to detain them.
Despite these measures, the number of migrants reaching Italy via the Mediterranean continues to rise, with over 150,000 arrivals last year—a 73% increase from 2022. The political tone of the EU’s asylum policy is highlighted by the career of Fabrice Leggeri, former head of the EU border agency Frontex, who resigned amid a human rights scandal and later ran for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections.
Europe’s need for migrant workers is increasingly evident. Job vacancy rates in the EU have risen post-COVID and remain high, particularly in countries with strong anti-immigrant parties like Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany. These shortages are acute in sectors crucial for the green transition, such as construction and STEM fields.
EU-wide efforts to address labor market needs, such as the “Blue Card” scheme for highly skilled workers, have been largely ineffective. In 2022, only 82,000 Blue Cards were issued, with Germany accounting for 77% of them. Employment policies remain primarily national responsibilities.
In the absence of coherent plans, governments resort to hypocrisy: publicly opposing irregular immigration while quietly admitting large numbers of foreign workers. This contradiction is heightened by nativist sentiment, leaving governments with few options other than hoping for the best while avoiding economic disruption.
In the UK, successive Conservative prime ministers have pursued contradictory policies, such as the failed plan to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda while issuing numerous work visas. The need to respond to right-wing criticism has forced the government to tighten regulations on student and care worker visas, harming the UK’s universities and leaving the Tories without credibility on immigration or the economy.
In contrast, Meloni has managed this contradiction more successfully. Despite doubling non-EU work permits since her election in 2022, she remains popular, particularly in Italy’s industrial north, where businesses need foreign workers. However, she still faces criticism and recently acknowledged that the work visa scheme has been exploited by criminal gangs.
If the far-right continues to gain ground in Europe, it will exacerbate the political challenges of labor shortages. Parties like the National Rally in France and the Alternative for Germany portray immigration as the problem, but yielding to nativist prejudices will only make Europe’s economic and growth challenges more difficult to overcome.
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