Fresh off his triumph in the Iowa caucuses, former President Donald Trump is gearing up for the New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday, where he is expected to maintain his lead over remaining contenders. However, recent polls show a narrowing gap, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley cutting into Trump’s lead, particularly among more moderate New Hampshire Republican primary voters.
The divergence in preferences is attributed to the more moderate nature of New Hampshire’s Republican electorate compared to Iowa’s caucusgoers. Haley’s appeal resonates with these voters, who, in contrast to Iowa, have a lower proportion of evangelical Christians. This difference in demographics is reflected in their attitudes toward issues like abortion, where New Hampshire tends to be less conservative than Iowa.
Despite these distinctions, recent issue polling suggests that, on key matters influencing their voting decisions—such as immigration, the economy, and foreign policy—moderate Republicans in New Hampshire align closely with the broader party. The concerns raised by both Democrats and independents in the Granite State on these issues also offer insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates as they head towards the general election.
The significance of Haley’s performance in the New Hampshire primary extends beyond her chances of securing the nomination. It serves as a barometer for the viability of a more moderate candidate within certain segments of the Republican Party, emphasizing the importance of demeanor and public perception over strict policy stances.
Immigration Dominates Concerns
Immigration remains a primary motivator for Republicans nationwide, and New Hampshire is no exception. A November Monmouth University/Washington Post poll revealed that 25 percent of likely GOP primary voters in the state considered immigration the most important issue facing the country. Despite a perceived lesser impact on New Hampshire, with only 5 percent of voters naming it the most important state issue, 66 percent expressed dissatisfaction with President Biden’s immigration policy, viewing it as more of a failure than a success.
New Hampshire Republicans largely align with the broader party on immigration policy proposals, including reducing the number of legal immigrants. A December YouGov/University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion poll indicated that 64 percent of likely Republican primary voters supported such measures. Additionally, 80 percent in a YouGov/CBS News poll from December favored a nominee willing to “deport millions of immigrants they believe to be undocumented.”
Over time, the views of New Hampshire Republicans on immigration have shifted, reflecting Trump’s influence in pushing the party towards more stringent, nationalistic positions. For instance, support for building a wall on the southern border increased from 69 percent in 2017 to 84 percent in October 2023.
Economic Concerns and Spending
Economic issues, particularly jobs and the economy, loom large for New Hampshire voters across party lines. In a November UNH poll, 78 percent of likely Republican primary voters ranked jobs and the economy as one of their top three issues, with 40 percent considering it their top concern. Worries about inflation and rising prices closely followed immigration as top concerns for likely Republican primary voters.
Government spending also weighs heavily on the minds of New Hampshire Republicans. In the Monmouth/Washington Post poll, half identified government debt as extremely important, and 69 percent in the November UNH/CNN poll supported a policy to return government spending to pre-COVID-19 levels. This aligns with Haley’s economic proposal, emphasizing reduced federal spending.
While economic concerns are likely to influence general election voters, recent shifts suggest warmer sentiments towards the economy. However, the Republican Party appears to have an advantage in this realm.
Foreign Policy: A Growing Concern
Foreign policy has emerged as a significant concern for New Hampshire voters, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East influencing their perspectives. The Biden administration’s commitment to supporting Ukraine has faced some resistance, particularly among New Hampshire Republicans. Only 46 percent in the Monmouth/Washington Post poll supported providing further military aid to Ukraine, with stronger opposition among Trump supporters.
The U.S.’s military aid to Israel following the Hamas attacks in Gaza has further complicated the foreign policy landscape. In the November UNH/CNN poll, foreign policy rose from a distant third to second place among likely Republican primary voters in terms of importance. Haley’s traditional stance on Ukraine aid, combined with a strong stance on countering China and unwavering support for Israel, aligns with the Republican base.
A significant majority of New Hampshire Republicans disapprove of Biden’s handling of foreign affairs, with 90 percent expressing dissatisfaction in an October UNH poll. The complexities of foreign involvement could reveal differences among GOP candidates, considering Trump’s departure from traditional Republican foreign policy norms during his presidency.
Regardless of the outcome on Tuesday, New Hampshire voters appear to share a widespread disapproval of Biden’s handling of critical issues. This sentiment could provide an opportunity for the eventual Republican nominee, despite the state’s recent history of supporting Democrats in presidential elections.
