The union representing Border Force officials has indicated that the number of individuals arriving in Britain via small boats is expected to surge again this year, following a temporary decrease due to adverse weather conditions. Government figures reveal that migrant arrivals across the English Channel have recorded a year-on-year decline for the first time since the inception of current records. However, Lucy Moreton from the Immigration Services Union has cautioned that this recent slowdown may be a transient anomaly linked to extremely inclement weather over the past few months.
The final recorded crossing of 2023 transpired on December 16th, with 55 people arriving in one boat from France. Subsequently, no further crossings were documented for the remainder of the year amidst heavy rain and high winds, marking the longest consecutive period with no arrivals.
Championing his commitment to “stop the boats,” Rishi Sunak has advocated the controversial Rwanda scheme as a means to achieve this goal. Despite the prime minister’s previous declarations of success when migrant numbers were down, the frequency of perilous Channel crossings is notably influenced by weather conditions.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today program, Moreton stated on Monday, “The planning assumption for 2024 is that 2023 has been unusually low. There have been other confounding factors – we have had particularly high winds, we have had a larger number of days where it is less likely that we are going to get migrants in boats. But we have also had much larger boats, much more seaworthy boats, so the planning assumption is that this is a glitch.”
Government figures indicate that the total arrivals in 2023 were more than a third lower than those in 2022. Moreton emphasized the need for Border Force and the broader country to continue allocating resources to manage potentially higher numbers, stating, “Will we see the peak that we saw in 2022? Maybe not, but certainly more than we have seen in the last year.”
The provisional annual total for the past year stands at almost 30,000 crossings, marking a more than one-third decrease from the record 45,774 crossings in 2022. Simultaneously, a humanitarian crisis has been unfolding in northern France, where a substantial number of asylum seekers endure homelessness and unsanitary conditions while awaiting suitable weather for their crossing.
Organizations aiding asylum seekers in northern France warned of a “catastrophic situation” in November, highlighting the dire living conditions that had not been adequately addressed by French authorities. Axel Gaudinat from the migrant support charity Utopia 56 cautioned that without intervention, asylum seekers in Calais and Dunkirk could succumb to the severe weather conditions before even attempting the crossing.
Addressing concerns, Sunak mentioned last month that there was no “firm date” for meeting his pledge to “stop the boats” when questioned by MPs. Michael Tomlinson, the minister for illegal migration, asserted, “Stopping the boats will continue to be our priority in the new year as we target people smugglers and break their business model,” emphasizing the international efforts to combat illegal migration.
