In an era dominated by images of desperate migration, from overcrowded boats crossing the Mediterranean to asylum seekers braving the Channel, there’s a prevailing narrative suggesting a global migration crisis. However, a closer look challenges this perception, as the claim that global migration is accelerating lacks scientific evidence.
International migrants constitute around 3% of the world population, a percentage that has remained stable for the past 50 years. Despite fears of mass migration, this figure challenges the idea of an uncontrollable surge of people overwhelming western societies and economies.
Refugee migration, often portrayed as widespread, accounts for approximately 10% of all international migrants, representing just 0.3% of the global population. Contrary to common belief, there is no evidence of a long-term increasing trend in refugee flows, and the majority (80-85%) remain in their regions of origin.
Illegal migration is not spiraling out of control either. The majority of migrants from the global south to the global north move legally, with nine out of 10 Africans moving to Europe possessing proper documentation.
Conventional wisdom attributes migration to poverty, inequality, and violence, advocating poverty reduction and development as the sole long-term solutions. However, evidence contradicts this view, revealing that migration often increases as poor countries experience economic growth. Rising income, education levels, and infrastructure improvements enhance people’s capabilities and aspirations to migrate.
The misconception that climate breakdown will trigger mass movements of “climate refugees” is also challenged. Research indicates that most individuals affected by droughts and flooding tend to stay close to home, with the most vulnerable often trapped and unable to move.
Paradoxically, migrants predominantly hail from middle-income countries like India and Mexico. Any form of development in the world’s poorest regions may increase emigration potential.
While global averages remain stable, legal immigration to the US, Britain, and western Europe has grown. However, this growth is primarily driven by persistent labor demand rather than poverty. Education, women’s emancipation, and population aging have created labor shortages, fueling the need for migrant workers in various sectors.
Failed border crackdowns stem from a lack of understanding of migration’s root cause: persistent labor demand. Policymakers must acknowledge that labor shortages, driven by economic and labor market liberalization, fuel immigration. The unspoken reality is that decades of policies encouraging precarious jobs, coupled with low levels of workplace enforcement, have facilitated the influx of migrants.
To address the challenges, policymakers must confront the truth about migration’s complexities, recognize its benefits and downsides, and make fundamental choices about the kind of society they envision. It’s imperative to intertwine debates about immigration with broader discussions on inequality, labor, social justice, and the societal values we aspire to uphold.
